1. What is Variance?
Understanding and managing variance is crucial for long-term success in poker, as it can lead to periods of both winning and losing, even if you are playing well or poorly.
- Short-term: Luck plays a big role (bad beats, coolers, etc.).
- Long-term: Skill dominates, and expected value (EV) evens out.
🃏 Example of Variance: You go all-in preflop with AA vs. KK. You should win 81% of the time, but 19% of the time, you’ll still lose. Over a small sample, this can feel brutal!
2. Why is Variance Important?
✅ Keeps Bad Players Playing – If the worst players never won, they would quit. Variance keeps games profitable.
✅ Tests Your Mental Game – Handling swings is crucial for long-term success.
✅ Teaches Bankroll Management – Proper bankroll size helps you survive downswings.
3. Types of Variance in Poker
🔺 Positive Variance (Upswings) – You keep winning flips, hitting draws, and running like a god.
🔻 Negative Variance (Downswings) – You keep losing despite making good plays. Even pros experience these!
🎲 High Variance Games:
- Loose-aggressive (LAG) playstyles
- Multi-table tournaments (MTTs)
- Spin & Gos / Hyper Turbo SNGs
♠️ Low Variance Games:
- Tight-aggressive (TAG) playstyles
- Full-ring cash games
- Heads-up Sit & Gos (HU SNGs)
4. How to Handle Variance Like a Pro
🧠 Mindset Tips:
- Accept that losing streaks will happen (even to the best players).
- Don’t go on tilt—bad decisions make downswings worse.
- Focus on making good decisions, not short-term results.
💰 Bankroll Management Tips:
- Cash Games: 50+ buy-ins recommended (NL20 = R1000 bankroll).
- Tournaments: 100+ buy-ins recommended (R100 MTTs = R10,000 bankroll).
- If in doubt, play lower stakes.
📊 Tracking & Study Tips:
- Use a poker tracker to review hands objectively.
- Study your leaks instead of blaming “bad luck.”
- Play more hands! The bigger your sample size, the more your true skill shines.
5. Final Thoughts
Variance makes poker exciting but also frustrating. The best way to beat variance is to play smart, manage your bankroll, and stay patient. If you stay consistent, skill will win out over time.
